Democratic Media Post 2: Welcome to the Wild West

My second post for the site democraticmedia.ca.

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The media landscape is obviously changing. People who work in arts and media are going to have to adjust to a brand new world. The media is becoming 'the wild west' to a large extent. This can be good or bad, it all depends on the attitude that is brought to it. So, quickly, a few of the coming realities.

First of all, advertising is going away (at least of the kind that comes in breaks on TV and Radio). It won't go away all at once but as television and radio go digital, as more and more people have PVRs and Tivo (that allow them to skip ads), as more and more people get (and learn to use) high speed internet fewer and fewer people will see any ads placed in content. As the numbers of people seeing the advertising declines the amount advertisers are willing to spend will decline Eventually it will go away entirely and the only programs that will be made are the ones that people are willing to do for free, the ones that are done on behalf of corporations (like old radio programs) and the programs that people are willing to pay to see or hear.

Second, all of the middle men are going to go away. Producers of arts and media will largely be responsible for their own sales and distribution. They may pay small listing fees - to have their content listed on a 'shopping' site for example. But the reality is that distributing the content will be so easy that it won't make sense to have 'networks' or 'distributors' do it for them. Traditionally one of the advantages that networks and distributors have provided is advertising and marketing but, as I said above, there won't be any traditional advertising. The primary source of advertising, for everything, will be word of mouth.

Third, the relationship between audiences and producers is going to change. Because word of mouth is going to be essential to the success of any media, producers are going to have to have stronger and deeper relationships with their audience. The old system where you produced, they watched and occasionally sent fan mail is a thing of the past. If they don't know you their incentive to talk about you will be less and so will your 'advertising'. It should also be noted that this 'relationship' , the community building you will need to do cannot be faked. If people get the impression that it's fake, that you're just selling them something and that you don't care about them it will not work.

Forth, you need to know who the show is for. Everything will be a 'niche' but you will have access to the entire planet to build that 'niche'. Unless you are producing the Superbowl, you can't aim at a 'mass' or 'general' audience. In the million channel universe there simply won't be mass audiences anymore. At least not as they've traditionally been known. To a large extent those audiences are already gone.

Fifth, and especially important for Canadian artists and media producers, "Can Con" restrictions will end. This, like the decline of advertising will take time before it happens completely, but it will happen. Eventually everything will be distributed via the internet. I don't mean the internet as you know it now, but the internet as it will be. The television in your living room won't have cable, or satellite, or rabbit ears. It will have an internet connection and it will deliver the shows you like when you want them. That also means that any real 'Can Con' protection won't work. Firewalls like China's could be built, but even then there would be ways around them. The upside is that the lack of a need for 'middle men' means that there will be no need for American or other international content producers to sell to Canadian networks or distributors in order to have their programs seen.

There are other subtle changes that will come, and surely some that no one can imagine at the moment. But that is the basics of how the coming wild west looks at the moment. Canadian 'netorks' will only exist to the extent that they can sell the programs they create themselves, in house, and without advertising revenue. There won't be room in this new world for middle men, as I've said, there won't be room for mediocrity (you're competing with the entire world now), you will have to know what you are doing, believe in what you're doing, and aim for brilliance ('good enough' won't be good enough anymore). Media will be as it should be. So long as we maintain 'net neutrality' your success or failure will depend on your commitment to the project, the quality of your ideas, the quality of your work and your ability to connect with an audience.