When Did Harper Know About Economy?

November's GDP Numbers are out now:

"Canada's economy continued its slide in November as the country's economic output shrank by 0.7 per cent, according to figures released Friday.

Statistics Canada said slumping construction activity and an ailing manufacturing sector led an industrial race to the bottom in the month, the third one in four in which Canadian GDP contracted.

Canada's national output shrank by 0.1 per cent in October, offsetting a similar gain in September.

In August, the Canadian economy slipped 0.3 per cent, an indication that a financial slowdown had already hit Canada prior to the credit meltdown that really began in September."

Given the number of official and unofficial financial advisors to the PMO it is now clear that Harper knew the economy was going south and cynically (illegally) tried to trick Canadians into giving him a majority before the effects started to be felt.

First of all, Harper himself is an economist. Given that and the official economic advisors on his team and regular meetings by Harper and other members of his government with business and economic leaders Harper must have known what was going on even while he denied it on the campaign trail.





So once more for anyone who doesn't get it yet. Stephen Harper is not a conservative, Stephen Harper believes in nothing at all except his own power, and keeping it.

Harper's budget is a bad one. There is no vision behind it, no plan for the economy, it is about handing out favors to people he might need when the next election comes and that's all.

Still when it comes to the vote Ignatieff was right and Layton was wrong. It is not that the budget is good, or that Harper deserves confidence, or that Harper deserves to stay in power - on the contrary Harper's actions since last fall have been close to criminal. But, people are scared and some aren't too bright. Harper has been lying to them long and hard. Harper has people convinced that a coalition is illegal and the polls unanimously show that people have no appetite for either the coalition or the election. Had the Governor General called an election instead of turning to Ignatieff the result could have been a Conservative majority for the next several years at least.

So, the only real play that didn't risk a long term majority for the little dictator was to allow this budget to go through - allow what stimulus there is start to flow so it can at least help some Canadians. Ignatieff, Layton, and any Canadian who is paying attention now has the task of making sure that people understand that Harper is not on anyone's side but his own, letting people know that coalitions are in fact legal and constitutional and laying the groundwork for the next election which may come as soon as March.

Election Post-Mortem

Well, another Canadian Election is come and gone and while it's not good news, it could have been much worse. Yesterday Canadians decided to follow the American example and re-elect a neo-conservative despite a terrible record on everything. But thanks to a combination of Newfoundland, Quebec, Northern Ontario, Toronto, Vancouver and multi-partisan groups such as AnyoneButHarper.ca, voteforenvironment.ca, Anti-Harper Vote Swap Canada, avaaz.ca and departmentofculture.ca Harper was denied a majority.
So, party by party here is how things broke down.

The Liberals: Ran a terrible campaign. Stephen Dion is, no doubt, a great guy and very smart. I think that he upped his credibility over the course of this election. I also think he is done as leader. He simply let Harper pound on him for too long before fighting back and will not ever be PM as a result. His votes with the Conservatives, during the last parliament and his constant abstentions turned away alot of Liberal supporters and rightly so. Personally I'm disgusted that 40% + of Canadians opted not to vote yesterday, but Dion's Liberals did not set a good example. Remember if you don't vote you can't complain. Bright spots for the Liberals include the addition to caucus of Gerard Kennedy and Justin Trudeau. Trudeau will help bring in young Liberals and Kennedy is the best leader available to the Party. Dion is almost certainly gone, Ray will hurt the Liberals in Ontario (and they don't need to be any weaker here), and while Stephen Harper cannot call Michael Ignatieff on his support for the occupation of Iraq, Gilles Duceppe certainly can and will which will hurt the Liberals in Quebec.

Kennedy who was running food banks when Adscam happened is youngish (but not too young), energetic, charismatic and fluently bi-lingual. He has ties to most of Canada: He was born in The Pas, Manitoba but went to school at the University of Alberta in Edmonton. He ran the Edmonton food bank from 83-86 then moved to Toronto where he started and ran the Daily Bread food bank. While he is not a Francophone, his wife is Jeannette Arsenault-Kennedy is a day care professional and Acadian from Prince Edward Island. The Kennedy win is sad on the one hand because Peggy Nash (NDP) was a great MP and did nothing to deserve the loss, but Kennedy's win means the Liberals may have a chance at rebuilding.

The NDP: Ran a better campaign than the Liberals, but not a great one. They picked up some seats, but they primarily took these from the weakened Liberals, not the Conservatives or the Bloc. They did however win a seat in Alberta, which is probably the biggest coup of the election for the Center/Left.

The Greens: Ran a good campaign, even if it was shy on resources. Elizabeth May should have chosen a riding that was winnable. May clearly did the best of any of the candidates in the debate, unfortunately for her this seems to have translated into votes for the Liberals or NDP and not the Greens. The fact that the Greens got 6.8% of the vote and no seats shows, yet again, the urgent need for electoral reform in Canada.

The Bloc: Ran a great campaign and, if they would finally give up the separatist ghost could play a much more significant role in National politics. A merger between the Bloc and Liberals would be tough to beat in an election. A merger between the Bloc and NDP could conceivably form a government. There are many signs that Bloc voters are ready to abandon separatism, but so far no political party has been able to make the right appeal to lure them from the separatist party. It may be that only the Bloc itself can do that.

The Conservatives: Ran a weak campaign, but won by default. Low voter turnout certainly helped them, as did the fact that no other party was able to effectively show people an alternative. Ok, when I say no other party I mean the Liberals. The Greens showed people an alternative, but couldn't convince people that the Greens would wield any power. The NDP showed an alternative but couldn't convince people they were a realistic possibility for government. The Liberals simply spent most of the campaign on the defensive and were unable to persuade voters to bother leaving the house on voting day. Given all of that though the Conservatives showed a great weakness. There was no reason why they shouldn't win a majority, they failed because (given their current policies) they have reached their limits.

In the aftermath of this election, publicbroadcasting.ca will return to more arts and culture stuff, but will continue to be somewhat political. I am also moving so it will be quieter than usual for a bit. Do stay tuned though, details of the Unparty to come.

Thanksgiving: What Will Future Generation Be Thankful For?

For most people the election will be put on hold tomorrow as everyone sits down for Thanksgiving dinner. It is unlikely though that most dinner tables will totally avoid the taboo topic of politics. If yours drifts in this direction, take a poll around the table. Ask people what your children and grandchildren and great grand-children will be thankful for when they site around their Thanksgiving tables in the future.

Will they be thankful for a reduction in greenhouse gasses, cooler temperatures, clean air and clean water or will they be thankful for a 2 cent reduction in diesel fuel prices?

Will they be thankful for a strong national health care system or will they be thankful that 14 year olds are getting life sentences?

Will they be thankful for a stronger more diverse national economy, and revamped infrastructure or will they be thankful that corporate board rooms got a big tax cut?

Will they be thankful for a strong public education system and a chance for everyone to go to university or will they be thankful that the $100/month day care credit was adjusted for inflation?

Will they be thankful for a strong, vibrant Arts and Culture sector, for music and film and literature that talk about them and their lives and experiences or will they be thankful that they didn't get a PM with a French Accent?

Obviously the Conservatives represent one side of this equation and (while they may have differences on the details) the Liberals, NDP, Greens and even the Bloc (if you're in Quebec) agree about the other side.

This election is actually shaping up to be very, very close. According to CPAC/Nanos the numbers currently look like this:

Conservatives 32 (-1) Liberals 28 (+1) NDP 22 (no change) BQ 10 (no change) Green 8 (no change) 18 % of people remain undecided

I know that other polling firms are showing different things, but in the last election Nanos was pretty close to right on the money. The table below will show you their final polling numbers compared to the actual result.



The other thing to keep in mind is the 18% undecided. There is a gulf in ideology between the Conservatives and the other parties. If people were going to vote Conservative they'd vote Conservative. It's far more likely that they are contemplating which of the Center/Left parties to vote for (Liberal/NDP/Green etc).
Although I don't have actual nationwide numbers on this at this point this example from the Winnipeg Free Press shows what they have found locally.

"What's more, voters who remain undecided going into the campaign's final weekend -- about seven per cent -- are leaning heavily to the opposition parties. About 30 per cent are seriously considering the NDP, 25 per cent are leaning to the Liberals and 16 per cent to the Greens, compared to 26 per cent who are leaning Conservative."

So, by their numbers anyway 71% of the undecided are going to break to the left on voting day but, due to the divisions, if we are going to take out the Tories we need to be motivated, we need to get our friends and relatives and neighbors and co-workers motivated and we need to vote strategically. Check out Anyonebutharper.ca or voteforenvironment.ca for information on strategy.

You Have A Choice

Canada: Do The Right Thing

I pointed out yesterday that voting strategically is a win-win-win situation. Today, at least to an extent Elizabeth May has agreed with that assessment and I feel the need to expand a bit on what we gain this time through strategic voting. As I said yesterday, strategic voting means more seats for the NDP than they would otherwise have, it means at least 1 seat for the Greens which they would otherwise not have, and it means a Liberal minority government. With only 5 points (and a margin of error of about 3 points) separating the Conservatives from the Liberals this is do-able. I know that many people find strategic voting objectionable, but this is no time for that kind of sentiment. There is too much at stake and everyone in Canada, except the Conservative Party, would gain from it.

On the Environment: If you have grown up in the last 50 years you have heard that the environment is important. That we need to do something to protect it, reduce emissions, stop global warming ... but it has always been something we should do someday, eventually, in the next 10 years or 20 years. Well the time has come to do something, not someday but next Tuesday. Stephen Dion's carbon tax plan is actually modest by carbon tax standards, but it's a start. I know Mr. Layton prefers 'cap and trade' but environmentalists and economists almost universally support the carbon tax model to get the most benefit while doing the least harm. If you'd like a few examples - try Al Gore, Kenneth Green (of the American Enterprise Institute), David Suzuki, Elizabeth May and of course, as of yesterday, 230 of Canada's top economists.

I know people will say that the timing isn't right, what about the economy, etc. but if you'll notice the timing is never right to do something about the environment. If they economy is strong they say 'you'll sink the economy' when the economy is weak they say 'not right now, wait for the economy to improve.' The reality is we've already put this off for far too long, this is a revenue neutral plan which means that the average Canadian won't pay any more than they already do (they'll just pay in a different way) and many will actually save money. The time to do something about the environment is Tuesday.

Beyond the Environment, Mr. Dion has stated that the Liberals would
restore and increase arts and culture funding, boost higher education, provide funds for infrastructure improvement (helping Canadian cities and boosting the economy by creating jobs), provide funds to re-invigorate manufacturing, provide 1.2 billion to help farmers modernize and improve efficiency, and he has said he'd move quickly to insulate Canada as much as possible from the coming economic storm.

This may not be everything on the wish list of the NDP and the Greens but it's a pretty good list and far better than we'd get under Harper. The reality is that neither the NDP nor the Greens are going to form the next government (unless it's by coalition) The NDP (as of this morning) is 13 points behind, and the Greens are 20 points behind and no party has ever covered that kind of ground in 5 days. But the NDP and the Greens can both be in Parliament, with a larger number of seats, helping to craft legislation IF and only IF enough people do the responsible thing, vote strategically and get Stephen Harper and the Conservatives out of office, otherwise we do nothing on the environment (for who knows how long) and everything that I listed above is off the table.


Below is a Widget from anyonebutharper.ca to help you vote strategically. If you don't like this one have a look at voteforenvironment.ca and see what they have to say.

Just another tax, Or Is It?

The day after our English debates seemed to inspire alot of talk as I stopped over in a few towns and cities yesterday, amazing the talk was of our younger generation. I was very happy to hear it as I've been excited to read the many comments on my social networks with some great debates among the Canadian people. I'm hoping this election has sparked some interest in many Canadian people, we need to be and need to teach our children to be more pro-active in their future.

I was asked yesterday to explain why my position was so strong on the Liberals Green Shift plan and to give an easy explanation to change their mind in why a Carbon tax would be the better way over a do nothing platform or why it would be better then a Cap and Trade, why paying another tax for gas (since that is the biggest issue regarding Carbon tax) would benefit Canadians.

Here was the conversation...

What is the difference between Carbon Tax and Cap and Trade?

Cap and Trade is applied to business only, although a step in the right direction to make companies accountable for their emissions here is the problem. Here I am, a business that will have carbon credits but because of my business structure I don't use much in the way of carbon burning but I purchase the credits for what I do use. Company B beside me in the auto industry burns high carbon emissions to continue their service but half way through the month have used up their credits. Company B comes to me and asks to purchase my credits I don't think I will use, I agree to sell my carbon credits so they can continue to burn the same about of carbon emissions to continue with their service, they also approach other low carbon emission companies for the purchase of their credits. At the end of the month, Company B burns the same amount of carbon emissions as they did prior to the cap and trade minus a little less because they try to save some money on carbon credit purchase but only a small amount. My business and other's Company B purchased carbon credits from burns only minimal due to our style of business.

Where has the savings in carbon emissions been saved? In essence, Company B continues to burn the same carbon emissions as did prior to the Cap and Trade policy.

Being a homeowner I purchased a few years ago a powerful gas 6hp lawnmower and to maintain a nice lawn I need to use it once if not twice a week yet now the gas I purchase to run the lawnmower comes with an added carbon tax, what do I do to save money?

Purchase an electric lawnmower and for those who dislike dragging around the cord, the newer electric lawnmowers that now has a battery charger to eliminate a electical cord.

So how does this save on money while stimulating new job growth?

Incentives is what companies will need to bring into the picture, for those maunfactuers create lawnmowers need to have an incentive plan set in place that if you bring in your gas powered mower to purchase an electirc one they give you a discounted price since they can still use the parts from a gas powered mower to recycle parts. Secondly, as more consumers purchase electric mowers and get away from the gas powered ones a higher demand for electric lawnmowers goes into play creating more jobs, and with a competitive industry always trying to make improvements especially going green , new innovative ideas of better mowers using renewable energy has now sparked a growing industry.

What about filling the tank of my car, how will this save me money and create more jobs?

We all know SUV's and gas guzzling cars have caused our industries to decline in many ways and now the question what now? As a consumer you need to save money now that a carbon tax has been added, so you become more aware of if you walk or bike to the store over driving? Do you take the nearest transit, or do you drive?

Next the consumer asks what do I do for the future in a vehicle, would like to continue to drive around town without worrying about being taxed.

The consumers, espcially city driving consumers decided to start purchasing hybid cars, more and more hybrid and smart cars are sold, now the auto manufactuers need to keep up with demand and always wanting to find ways to have a better and greener auto made to run on renewable energy, the visions are endless. Demand increases, a new driving industry begins.

The old cars what do we do with all the parts, won't it end up just rotting away in some auto graveyard?

No, not when more and more companies and programs are Going Green, everything we make given the right incentives can be put to good use like the Car Donation Charity (for U.S. Car Donation Charity ) or what many RV manufacturers are doing.

The impact right now will be difficult for me until this new generation of industries are in full production, so what right now?

Yes, considering the way the U.S. economic crisis is unfolding that has already touched Canadians with many job losses in the manufacturing industry and import/export is sure to suffer, it may take some time for all our economies to bounce back but while we are waiting we are taking a step in the right direction and the Liberal government has already outlined in their platform many taxpayer incentives and income tax cuts to help get over the harder economic times we may face, that with their taxpayer calculator you can find on Greenshift.ca, will show you this is a win win situation now and for the future generations to come.

The change for the future cannot come from government alone, we must take account as individuals to change our lifestyles, and when we gear our future and teach our children that change can be the best method to get over the hard times, we force companies to change. Without consumer change, without consumer pressure, companies will only make one kind of green, and as we are finding out that kind of green only makes freedom come with a hard price to pay, that price for our southern friends is in the amount of $700 billion dollars >...don't put a price on the Canadian future, put a price on Canadian made.